Explaining College Football Teaser Bets – Sports Betting Basics and How-To Guides


Welcome to this GamblingSites.org sports betting
how-to video. I’m Drew Goldfarb, and today we’ll be
breaking down “College Football Teaser” bets. Whether you’re betting on football, baseball,
basketball, hockey, or anything else, make sure to check out GamblingSites.org for all
of your sports betting needs. So before we get into the strategy for making
College Football Teaser bets, let’s break down what they are, exactly. Teasers are a type of Parlay bet where the
lines are moved in your favor. In exchange for the sportsbook helping you
by shifting the lines, the payout odds are going to be lessened. You can make Teaser bets on either the point
spread or on the Total, also known as the “Over/Under”, lines. For our examples in this video, we’re going
to be focused mainly on Point Spread Teasers. Since this is a type of Parlay wager, that
means you’ll be betting on multiple games as part of a single wager. If you need to brush up on Parlay betting,
you can find a link to our How-To guide on that in the description below. You can also check out our guide to placing
NFL Teaser bets by clicking on that link in the description. While college football teaser betting offers
a different strategy, we recommend watching the NFL guide video prior to watching this
one. The main idea of basic teaser strategy is
to place teasers that go from a loss to a win on point spreads, which in the NFL means
fully crossing 3 and 7 at the best odds possible. While that works for the NFL, it’s not the
same for college football. In the NFL, the margin of victory for a large
percentage of games ends up somewhere between 3 and 7 points. The reason that that concept doesn’t work
for college football Teasers is simply because the 3-to-7 point margin of victory is only
about two-thirds as common in college games as it is in the NFL. So how do we adjust? When our experts did some datamining, they
discovered that two similar, but different subsets seem to work. The first subset is betting underdogs that
are in the +1.5 to +2.5 range, where the betting total is LESS THAN 47.5. The second subset is betting favorites that
are in the -7.5 to -8.5 range, where the betting total is LESS THAN 47.5. The difference here is key, as it’s the
addition of a Totals cap that helps make the increase in cover rate potentially profitable. The idea is that games with a lower amount
of projected scoring may be less volatile with margin of victory. We do want to point out that datamining like
was used to create those subsets can be dangerous when it’s taken as a sure-thing. The sample sizes used to determine these numbers
are not and can not be big enough to avoid potentially large swings based on year-to-year
results and statistics. There is an entire section of our article
on College Football Teasers dedicated to this on our website that I’d recommend checking
out, and the link to that is in the description. If you really want to beat college football
teasers, then a better method for the favorites starts with removing vig from the moneyline. There is going to be a significant amount
of math involved here, and a lot of numbers, so feel free to pause, rewind, and review
if you need to. There’s a no-vig calculator on our website
that we’ll be using to help with calculating the no-vig odds. Let’s use a hypothetical game between Ohio
State and Michigan as an example. Here, OSU is favored to win by 8 points, with
each team at the standard -110 odds. The moneyline, meanwhile, show the Buckeyes
at -310 and the Wolverines at +280. Using our no-vig calculator, we find that
the no-vig moneyline is -287.27, which has a no-vig win probability of 74.18%. That tells us that the market is giving Ohio
State a 74.18% chance of winning. … From here, we look back to the point spread. Ohio State’s spread was -8, so in our 6-point
teaser, we’d have them at -2. Our database shows about a 2.5% push rate
in college football on a -1 spread, and a 1.8% push rate on a -2 spread. Since we’d lose on a 1-point result, and
we’d push on a 2-point result, we have to subtract the 2.5, and half of the 1.8, from
Ohio State’s market odds of winning. That leaves us with a cover rate of 71.59%. So what do you do with that number? Well, in that example, teasing Ohio State
in a 3-team, 6-point, +180 teaser is considered “+EV”, while teasing them in a 2-team,
6-point, -110 teaser is “-EV”. Why? Because in order to break even long-term,
you need a 70.95% success rate on 3-team, 6-point teasers at +180, and Ohio State’s
71.59% is better than that. However, for a 2-team, 6-point teaser at -110,
you need a success rate of 72.37% to break even, and the Buckeyes fall short in that
regard. Betting on Teasers is a pretty advanced technique,
and you should make sure you fully understand them before attempting to place your first
Teaser wagers. Make sure to read our articles on “NFL Teasers”
and “College Football Teasers”, as well, for more information so you can have the best
and most-thorough understanding possible before heading to your sportsbook or online betting
site. … … … … That’ll do it for our “College
Football Teasers” guide. Be sure to like, share and subscribe, and
keep checking out GamblingSites.org for more picks, tips, and of course how-to guides. I’m Drew Goldfarb, thanks so much for watching. I’ll see you next time.

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