Should you use betting sites such as oddschecker?


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so everybody’s looking for clues as to where the price is going to go we are
looking at odds checker at the moment and I’ll check here you can see lists
all of the bookmakers so I say all most of them whoever has paid to be on odds
checker and the advantage of that obviously as you can see the price that
everybody’s offering up the current market but generally speaking you can
see that the prices are pretty much the same across all of the markets I go on
to explain why in a second but you can see on ads checker that you can see odds
shortening here are nods drifting so the blue is DuPont whose price is basically
coming in it’s being backed and it’s a lark the price is going out and that’s
been the predominant state for probably half an hour or so I think in this
market and so let’s examine a few things in here as well so you know okay we can
see that the price is shorting on DuPont how does that reflect on the exchange
market itself well let’s have a look if I just move this out of the way I’ve got
the actual exchange market in front of me here and if we actually look I’m not
gonna look at the charts yet but if we actually look at DuPont on the ladder
you can see immediately what we can you know without looking at the chart can
tell you what’s going on within this particular market
so do ponder you can see is currently trading at around force which is no
surprise because that sort of says on HUDs checker as well and you can see
that it’s traded at a high of five point seven but it’s currently down here it’s
at the low end of its traded range it’s near the bottom so what do you think has
happened to the price of DuPont you can tell from the ladder and the way that
the volume is is sort of spread out and therefore that it must have been banked
if we look at the chart we will probably get a confirmation that
that is the case so there you go you can see initially I’m just going to park cut
up here so we can focus on a few different runners but you can see
initially there was activity around for the price shot out to 5.5 and then it’s
gradually been backed in so what you’re seeing an odds checker is this being
backed in period from here I’m not sure what time period odds checker is over
but it’s obviously probably since this morning
this volume over here and this activity was from the previous night so you can
see there’s very little volume there and there’s plenty of volume here so this
volume over here says nothing to me that doesn’t say anything but you can see
that because we’re getting closer and closer to the start of the race then
people are betting more and more net and that’s exactly the sort of behavior and
pattern that you would expect to see in a resume illustrating the lower volume
of here is because this was probably last night and therefore any price moves
that take place during that period could just be somebody with a hundred pounds
you can see actually in fact you can see the biggest bet was about hundreds but
at the moment it’s about a 500 known as we get to the start of the race
that well obviously starts to build from there so we can tell the dew point by
looking at the traded volume here that that must have been backed in so far
today on you know where most of the money is where most of the volume is so
what happens – it’s a lark in this particular market so you can see it’s a
like at the moment is trading at around five four five five and it’s traded at a
low of three six and most of the volume is here so can you see the shape of the
volume here leading up to where the price is currently so I expect that
probably what we’ve seen with it’s a lark is that the price was lower and it
drifted or perhaps the price was around four and then it came in and then
drifted out to here may have gone a little bit higher before coming back in
again so I’m doing all of this without looking
at the chart and if we have a look at it’s a log okay it’s been on a fairly
consistent drift so it has actually seen some peaks here so it started down here
the prices drifted out there was a little peek around fours
which would correlates to a run this level here you can see a bit of activity
in the market around that level it’s gone out come back in go on out and come
back in so we can see that it’s sort of gone like this it’s gone up here stayed
there for a bit then it went up and then it came back down and then it went up
and then it came back down so probably gonna continue that trend but if you
want that trend to continue then you’d need to see something else backed in and
if we look at midnight walk you can see it’s right at the bottom end of its
current traded range it’s been a big price so midnight walk is being backed
in so you can see just by looking at the ladder you can see what the chart is
when we first designed bet engine when I first started trading we didn’t have any
chance and I would visualize in my head what I’ve just described to you and you
can see how it’s reflected on the chart so let’s have a look at take a break
here can we see here that take a break is really not moved at all it’s pretty
flat so what do you think the charts going to look like on take a break well
let’s have a look if you’re not going to take a break so let’s have a look at to
take a break there you go you can see that before I
you know when I asked that question what’s happens to the price to take a
break you knew exactly what the chart was going to look like it’s an important
skill within trading to be able to do this because when you look at it lighter
that’s what should pop up in your head immediately and then you confirm it with
a chart if you look at the charts first I must prefer to look at the ladder look
at the volume and then plot the chart in my head and then have a look at the
chart to see if it confirms what I was thinking anyhow but if we look back at
odds checker again you can see here that take a break you can see they say that
it’s coming in but we know that that it isn’t all of the activity even from last
night on tiny volume to today when there’s a little bit more volume shows
that it’s pretty much flat so I think that odds checker is misleading at best
and also if and I you know the first time I did this I did it by accident I
went to go into a market set the wrong steak and accidentally
sent the price crashing in and to my surprise I guess what happened when I
looked at odds checker lo and behold odds checker said the
price was coming in so what that tells you is that the bookmakers follow the
exchange prices in the olden days we’re talking way back when we first started
20 years ago bookmakers would set the prices and the exchange would follow
them but now it’s the other way around so I discovered it by accident
accidentally put the wrong snake in the market got myself in a right mess and lo
and behold I suddenly saw the price on odds checker start to react so it did a
bit more testing and sure enough what you find especially on low volume early
in the morning if you go into the exchange and you beat up a price then
you will change the price of the bookmakers so you can tell that the
bookmakers are following the exchange and if there’s a large position goes in
on the exchange and the price starts to move bookmakers get nervous and and
change their pricing all the pricing teams do but that tends to be you know
if you bet with an independent bookmaker you’ll probably find that they’ll have
an opinion on a race most of the Corporations don’t they’re
just there to manage risk and therefore they don’t really take much of an
opinion on the race it’s gone from people who knew a lot about racing to a
bunch of number crunchers really if you look down here as well I know some
people will have a look at this little area down here so you can see the most
popular bet so these are the most popular pets that have been placed
through odds check out on this particular race you can see people have
been betting on it’s a lark take a break do pond a variety of different horses
here so if you want to know what lies underneath these numbers here if you
view the page source and you can actually have a look for yourself
so if we look at odds checker and we look at the page source and then scroll
down to this particular section here you can actually see that take a break
they’ve had 60 bets it’s a lark they’ve had 112 midnight
walk they’ve had 53 a2 pond they’ve had 42 now so you can actually
see the data that sits behind that now if we flick back to the exchange
there are thousands of bets on the exchange so which one do you think is
going to be more accurate or you think odds check with letting you know a
couple hundred bets is going to be more accurate than an exchange with the
housings of them so you can see there are forty five thousand pounds through
this market I guarantee you on odds checker and on the exchange a lot of
those will be 2 5 and 10 pound bets and the odd 100 pound bet and perhaps they
owed 50 but the exchange tells you everything that you need to know
I don’t reference external sites I don’t really look at many other things I’ll
have a casual glance around a couple of little areas to see what is going on
within the market and whether that you know are there special offers and stuff
like that that may generate a bit of activity but if you actually look at the
exchange the exchange tells you everything that you need to know you
don’t need to go to external sites and in fact if you do then you may get a
distorted view because it’s a reflection an echo of what you see on the exchange
but also the volume and the number of bets on the exchange are more
representative of what you’ll see on third-party sites because most of the
activity especially on racing is very low very early on because you have no
visibility of the horse or how its behaving or anything like that and as a
consequence you tend to find the markets with bookmakers a price to reflect that
level of uncertainty they’re not as accurate as you tends to get on the
exchange the exchange tends to be quite tight and by tight I mean these numbers
up here are close to 100% whereas if we go back and look at odds checker and you
probably find it isn’t so tight and certainly if you go into a bookmakers
shop you’ll find that the market is pretty loose overall so yeah
if you wants to have a look at what’s going on with the market I suggest you
just stick on the exchange because it will tell you a lot more information
than pretty much any third party site you

Posts created 5600

7 thoughts on “Should you use betting sites such as oddschecker?

  1. I might be wrong but I think Oddschecker determine whether a selection is coming in or out via money backed via (or at least clicked through from) its own website only so it might not represent money from all sources.

  2. normally just have few bookies open in Australia. Beteasy, Neds, ladbrokes and bet365. can get some swing trades done doing this. e.g if horse goes from 1.90 to 2 then notice drifts out on betfair.

  3. i need to know the industry sp right before the off, that's the reason i look at oddschecker. i calculate my own forecast price for races these days, and then i can see if a horse is actually coming in or whether it's just trading fluff..works a treat

  4. Thanks Peter, very helpful. One question, I was told that Nap sites (eg napchecker.com) are helpful in giving a guide as to which horses could be heavily backed. In your experience, is there truth to this?

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