Your lotto guide

If you were to put $1 coins along the A1 from Perth to Melbourne on one side and back on the other side the chances of winning that lottery are the same as picking the correct $1 coin along both ways. Actually that would be too few coins along that way. It’s a little bit […]

The Gambler’s Fallacy

I’ve lost the last eight rounds, I’m due for some good cards. We’ve won every coin toss so far. Our luck must be running out. This type of thinking might be common, but that doesn’t stop it from being wrong. This is called the gambler’s fallacy, or the Monte Carlo fallacy. The mistaken idea that […]

Nondetects and Data Analysis

Let’s start with terminology, non-detects are real data. What bothers me all the time is when someone talks about non-detects and then the real data. And non-detects are real data. We’ll see how to use them today. Sometimes they’re called Less-thans, because they’re at the low end of the distribution of data, called Qualified Data. […]

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